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Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CNRS, CHMS
Director Business & Career Development
Keller Williams Arizona Realty
www.PacellaGroup.com
For the past year, we have seen consistently month over month that 93-94% of all properties selling in our market are listed under $400,000. That is still holding true.
As we know, the number of foreclosures listed has decreased, but the number of short sales have increased market share. The number of equity sellers has remained relatively unchanged over the past year.
The absorption rate (the number of listings pending sale versus the total active inventory) by city is:
Over all Valley wide 24.2%.
Chandler 21.8%
Fountain Hills 14.8%
Gilbert 27.4%
Glendale 28.7%
Peoria 24%
Scottsdale 14.8%
Surprise 27.2%
Tempe 20.4%
Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:
* There are 27,497 single family detached homes actively on the market in MLS.
* There are 35,126 active listings in inventory, which includes patio homes, town homes, condos, and lofts.
Those Who Wait Will Pay Thousands More This Spring
Waiting a few extra days or weeks to purchase a home this spring could cost buyers thousands of extra dollars as the office of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) implements several changes for loans guaranteed by the Federal Housing Authority (FHA).
Coming just weeks before the April 30 deadline for the Home Buyer Tax Credit and just days after the March 31 expiration of the Federal Reserve Board’s mortgage backed securities purchase program (which has kept home loan rates artificially low for over a year), these FHA changes make it even more important to act now to save big.
Here are a few reasons why:
On April 5th, the cost of required up-front mortgage insurance for loans guaranteed by the FHA will increase from 1.75% to 2.25%. For a borrower purchasing a $200,000 home with a $7,000 down payment, the up-front mortgage insurance will increase by $965. Up-front mortgage insurance is typically financed in the final loan amount so the impact to a monthly payment will be minimal but overall, the increase is still borne by the borrower both upfront and monthly.
It is important to note that in order to be eligible for the lower cost up-front mortgage insurance, a lender has to order a case number from the FHA before April 5th. A case number can only be generated for loan applications where a property is involved and a fully executed purchase contract exists. Home buyers who have been pre-approved but are not under contract will not be eligible for the reduced premium effective April 5th.
Later this spring, the amount of money that a seller can return to the buyer from their sale proceeds will be reduced from 6% to 3%. The reduction in these “seller concessions” can increase the amount of cash a buyer will be required to pay at closing by $6,000 for a home purchase of $200,000.
There is only one way to avoid being affected by all of these costly changes that lie ahead – submit all FHA mortgage applications by the last week of March.
If I can answer any questions you may have about how these changes could impact you, call me. I appreciate your business.
Sincerely,
Rebecca Roberts
The Lending Co.
602-791-6262
rroberts@thelendingco.com
equal opportunity lender
 BK0909441 NMLS#231543
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Green Street Development | 8390 E Via de Ventura, Suite F-110 | Scottsdale | Arizona | 85258 |
Phone: 602.466.7444 |
Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CNRS, CHMS
Director Business & Career Development
Keller Williams Arizona Realty
There are good reasons to be optimistic about the Phoenix market. There are signs that the light at the end of the tunnel may not be a train.
It’s not a surprise that:
* The strongest month for monthly median appreciation occurred in October of 2005 with a market overall appreciation of 55%.
* The weakest month for appreciation occurred in May of 2009 at -47%.
What might be surprising is that:
* Monthly median appreciation is currently at -3% versus last year at this time, when appreciation was -39%.
Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:
* There are 27,582 listings being actively marketed in MLS, which is relatively unchanged for the past two weeks.
* There are 35,224 listings being actively marketed, including condos, patio homes, town homes and lofts.
An interesting email I received from Stan Van Dyk of Cash Funding Options:
Hi All:
Today, I’m going to show you how the government’s
moratoriums and loss mitigation programs have affected
foreclosures and shadow inventory.
Shadow inventory is made up of all the properties that are
in foreclosure or headed toward foreclosure that haven’t
hit the market yet. There are 7 million homes in this shadow
inventory category. What the government isn’t telling you
is that their moratoriums and loss mitigation programs
created a huge surge of foreclosures that are about to pop.
Their effort to decrease foreclosures has backfired.
According to the National Association of Realtors, there
were 3.6 Million unsold homes in September. You think there
are a lot of homes on the market now? There are 7 Million
more coming that the government has created in this shadow
foreclosure inventory. That’s 2 times the amount of homes
that are currently on the market now!
The government’s Making Home Affordable (MHA) modification
program and FHA’s Hope for Homeowners refinance program DO
NOT WORK for borrowers that are too wealthy or owe too much
on their homes. The number of foreclosures for high end and
luxury homes in increasing and there are a ton of luxury
homes in this shadow inventory.
So what does all of this mean to you as a real estate
investor?
Opportunity, a lot of opportunity to help high-end
homeowners by offering them a short sale while making a
killing in the process.
So when can we expect to see the surge in foreclosures from
this shadow inventory?
We are in the first phase of shadow inventory right now and
it will continue into 2010. The second wave will start in
2010 and will continue into 2011 because the national
foreclosure moratoriums ended in March and the government
intensified its HOPE NOW Alliance program as well as its
Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP). These programs
were released in the first week of March but the problem
was that the servicers and lenders did not receive training
until the middle of June. Then, the programs had to be
updated because they weren’t effective and they became more
complicated to implement effectively.
This created a huge amount of people that have not paid
their mortgage and their houses have not been taken back by
the lenders yet. Basically the government only delayed the
inevitable foreclosure process but they made it worse
because all of the homes will be entering foreclosure at
the same time and with more debt owed on the mortgages.
This is the ultimate short sale environment. These homes
are ripe for the picking. Many of these homeowners have thrown
their hands up and have vacated the houses. These vacant
houses are gold for you as a real estate investor.
The third phase of shadow inventory will be borrowers that
have exhausted their options on long term government
sponsored payment plans, forbearances, and failed
modifications. These will show up in 2011 and continue into
2012 as their foreclosure timelines were delayed or reset
by the latest HAMP efforts.
As you can see, the biggest mass of foreclosures hasn’t
even hit us yet!
Call us to see how you can help and profit from the the credit and housing crisis.
Thank you,
Stan Van Dyk – Managing Partner
Cash Funding Options
4625 S Lakeshore Dr Tempe, AZ 85282
888-341-3802 Toll Free 602-314-1025 Office 480-516-4364 Cell
480-240-1316 e-Fax
Stan@CashFundingOptions.com http://www.cashfundingoptions.com/
Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella ABR, CNRS, CHMS
Director of Business & Career Development
Keller Williams Arizona Realty
This week appears to be a good news/perhaps not so good news week in the market.
The good news is that the totals for notice of trustee sale for the month of January are in. In Maricopa County 6,762 notices were served in January, which is the lowest number since November of 2008.
However, in reviewing the market for the past week, we are observing an increase in listings (typical for this time of year), and the first sign of slowing pending sales. The slowing is not dramatic, but something that we will obviously be observing.
Overall, price per square foot increased by $.52 cents for the month of January, bringing overall depreciation from -16.7% to -1.9%, but if pending sales remain slow, that could change.
Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:
* There are 27,494 single family detached homes actively for sale in MLS. That is an overall increase of 46 listings from last week.
* There are 35,102 total homes (including condos, patio homes, town homes and lofts) actively for sale in MLS.
Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CNRS, CHMS
Director of Business & Career Development
Keller Williams Arizona Realty
Here we go! The moment we’ve all been anticipating! Would we see the traditional rise in pending sales anticipated to begin the third week in January annually, or would the “shadow inventory” of foreclosures flood the market?
The results are in. According to the Cromford Report:
* Pending listings are up 5% over the past week.
* It is also anticipated that January will see the fewest notices of trustee sale in approximately 20 months.
During the same week in 2009, we had approximately 20 months of active inventory, versus approximately 7 months in 2010. Additionally, the average sale price per square foot (Valley wide and all dweling types), increased by $2.00 per square foot in the past month.
All of these are certainly positive indicators and reasons to be optimistic.
Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:
* There are 27,448 single family detached listings currently active in MLS. That is an increase of 128 listings over last week.
* There are 35,015 total listings, including all dwelling types (including condos, patio homes, town homes and lofts).
To view homes for sale, or for additional information visit www.PacellaGroup.com or phone (602) 908-0373.
Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CNRS, CHMS
Director Business & Career Development
Keller Williams Arizona Realty
(602) 908-7177
www.pacellagroup.com
The forecast for the Phoenix market is still optimistic. We are seeing the traditional swell of inventory that would be typical in January with inventory increasing, and pending sales decreasing, however; if you compare our current inventory with January of 2008 and/or 2009, our inventory is nearly half of what it had been, and our pending sales are nearly doubled.
Overall, pricing for foreclosed properties and equity sellers has been stabilizing, however, short sales are still seeing price erosion.
Notices of trustee sales have slowed considerably this month. If we continue on our current trend average for the month, this could be the slowest month for notice of trustee sale since April of 2008!
Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:
* There are 27,320 single family detached properties actively on the market in MLS today. That is an increase of 712 listings.
* There are a total of 34,830 properties (including condos, patio homes, town homes and lofts) currently on the market.
Please contact us for additional information, or to receive a portal into MLS.
I received a nice email from Michael Neill of American Alliance Mortgage Company with the following fantastic news:
| BREAKING NEWS!!!!!FHA WAIVES 90 DAY FLIP RULE
HUD TAKES ACTION TO SPEED RESALE OF FORECLOSED PROPERTIES TO NEW OWNERS
Measure to help bring stability to home values and accelerate sale of vacant properties
In an effort to stabilize home values and improve conditions in communities where foreclosure activity is high, HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan today announced a temporary policy that will expand access to FHA mortgage insurance and allow for the quick resale of foreclosed properties. The announcement is part of the Obama administration commitment to addressing foreclosure. Just yesterday, Secretary Donovan announced $2 billion in Neighborhood Stabilization Program grants to local communities and nonprofit housing developers to combat the effects of vacant and abandoned homes…
…The waiver will take effect on February 1, 2010 and is effective for one year, unless otherwise extended or withdrawn by the FHA Commissioner. To protect FHA borrowers against predatory practices of “flipping” where properties are quickly resold at inflated prices to unsuspecting borrowers, this waiver is limited to those sales meeting the following general conditions:
· All transactions must be arms-length, with no identity of interest between the buyer and seller or other parties participating in the sales transaction.
· In cases in which the sales price of the property is 20 percent or more above the seller’s acquisition cost, the waiver will only apply if the lender meets specific conditions.
· The waiver is limited to forward mortgages, and does not apply to the Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) for purchase program.
Specific conditions and other details of this new temporary policy are in the text of the waiver, available on HUD’s website at: http://www.hud.gov/offices/hsg/sfh/waivpropflip2010.pdf
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Mike Neill
480-505-2202 ext 208
mike@aamcbank.com
Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CHMS, CNRS
Director of Business & Career Development
Keller Williams Arizona Realty
www.PacellaGroup.com
The market is starting out on some very positive notes for the New Year!
Active listing inventory is down 26% over the same time period last year.
I never imagined I would be pleasantly surprised by depreciation, however; appreciation was at -38.6% at this time last year. Currently, appreciation is at -5.2%, or a 33.4% improvement!
As reported by the East Valley Tribune today, Arizona is still among the 10 fastest growing states with an influx of new residents. Additionally, new building permits have declined by approximately 37% over the last year which is providing some relief in the market saturation.
The data for new building permits for 2008 and 2009 by municipality is:
2008 2009
Scottsdale 211 113
Tempe 35 38
Mesa 587 553
Phoenix 2726 1418
Peoria 760 282
Chandler 366 548
Total 4685 2952
Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:
• There are 26,608 single family detached listings currently active in MLS today. That is decrease of 29 listings compared to last week.
• Total listings (including condos, patio homes, town homes and lofts) currently active in MLS 34,030.
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