Buying Arizona Real Estate » Home Sales

The Phoenix Real Estate Weekly 5/28/10

Barb Savoy — Fri, 28 May 2010 19:02:16 +0000

Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella ABR, CNRS, CHMS ~ Director of Business & Career Development, Keller Williams Arizona Realty www.PacellaGroup.com

There are many variables that can effect what seems to be our continuing ascension from what appeared to be the bottom, such as, “strategic default” by Alt-A borrowers; the expiration of the home buyer tax credits; and any other economic news that could cause buyers to have lack of confidence; however, setting the crystal ball aside and evaluating data for today, it would appear that with the exception of the luxury market, all other areas of the Valley are seeing improvement over this same time period last year.

Days of available inventory and days on market have decreased 20% over the past year, and although appreciation has been bouncing around over the past few weeks (as high as almost 10% and as low as 5%) this week Valley wide appreciation is at 7.4%.

Please view the two columns below to see the year over year appreciation by major city:

2009 2010

Cave Creek -22.6% -3.7%

Chandler -23.1% -0.8%

Fountain Hills -24.8% -5.9%

Gilbert -19.9% -4.1%

Glendale -44.8% 12.2%

Paradise Valley -13.2% -21%

Peoria -26.1% -2%

Phoenix -51.8% 23.1%

Scottsdale -21.9% -11.6%

Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:

There are 26,374 single family detached homes actively on the market in MLS. That is an increase of 152 listings for the week and the second week in a row that we’ve observed an inventory increase during a time period when we would normally see decrease.
There are 33,489 active listings in MLS, which includes patio homes, town homes, condos and loft properties.

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The Phoenix Real Estate Monthly 5/14/2010

Barb Savoy — Sat, 15 May 2010 02:11:36 +0000

Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CNRS, CHMS Director Business & Career Development ~ Keller Williams Arizona Realty

The Phoenix market certainly has it’s ups and downs, but one thing has been VERY consistent over the past year. Properties listed over $400,000 only account for 7% of what has been selling for the past year. In the month of April, 73% of all properties sold were listed under $200,000; and approximately 20% of what sold was in the mid-range between $200,000-$400,000.

Has the market hit bottom? The median sales price has fallen 52% from the market high of June 2006, however, it is up 10% over this same time period last year.

Equity sales held 40% of the inventory that closed in March, matching the 40% held by REO sales, while short sales made up 20% of the market.

The absorption rate (the number of pending listings versus the amount of available inventory) is 27.7% Valley wide, which is very promising when the historical percentage over the past two years is reviewed.

Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:

There are 25,935 single family detached homes actively on the market in MLS. That is an increase of 370 listings for the week.
There are 32,034 active listings in MLS, which includes patio homes, town homes, condos and loft properties.

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The Phoenix Real Estate Weekly 5/7/2010

Barb Savoy — Fri, 07 May 2010 13:41:04 +0000

It appears as though we have another week of “the good, the bad, and the ?”

The good

The absorption rate Valley wide in all price ranges is 28.4%.
In the price ranges under $175,000 the absorption rate is 30-40%
Valley wide there is a 4.5 month supply of inventory (seller’s market)

The bad

The absorption rate drops into the teens at the $375,000 threshold
The absorption rate drops to single digits at the $800,000 threshold
In the luxury price ranges ($1,000,000 and over) there is a 17.2 month supply of inventory

The ?

Appreciation is down from 9.4% two weeks ago to 5.9% today. That may seem discouraging at first glance, but is much healthier than a steep incline that could be followed by a steep decline as we’ve seen historically.
Alt-A loans (borrowers who had good credit but chose stated income loans) that originated during the peak of the market just began re-setting in the fourth quarter of 2009. It is unknown how many of those borrowers 1). over stated their income at loan origination, 2). how many are still earning the same amount of income, and 3) how many who are able to afford the homes they purchased will strategically default.
Inventory is continuing to decrease, but appreciation is declining, which defies the law of supply and demand.

Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:

There are 25,568 single family detached homes actively on the market in MLS. That is a decrease of 1405 listings for the week.
There are 32,645 active listings in MLS, which includes patio homes, town homes, condos and loft properties.

Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CNRS, CHMS
Director Business & Career Development
Keller Williams Arizona Realty
www.PacellaGroup.com
(480) 767-3009

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The Phoenix Real Estate Weekly 4/30/2010

Barb Savoy — Fri, 30 Apr 2010 20:36:43 +0000

Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CNRS, CHMS
Director Business & Career Development
Keller Williams Arizona Realty
www.PacellaGroup.com
(480) 767-3009

I hate to sound like a broken record (if you are under the age of 35, records were vynil discs that were used to store music prior to CDs, i-pods or MP3 players, and they sometimes became broken or scratched and repeated the same lyric over and over), but distress is playing a major factor in the inventory and movement of our market. Areas that have already experienced a high level of distress and are now moving through their inventory are beginning to see appreciation, while those who have not experienced a high level of distress are not. To illustrate, please note the percentage of distress and resulting appreciation in the following major cities:

percentage distress – annual appreciation
Chandler 67% -0.5%
Gilbert 64% -4.9%
Glendale 63% 8.4%
Mesa 75% 5.3%
Phoenix 67% 20%
Scottsdale 24% -3.1%
Surprise 74% 8.3%
Tempe 41% -6.6%

Valley wide, the price ranges under $350,000 are experiencing a seller’s market and have less than 5 months of inventory. The price ranges under $200,000 have less than 3 months of inventory.

Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market.
There are 26,169 single family detached homes actively on the market in MLS. That is a decrease of 804 listings for the week.
There are 33,415 active listings in MLS, which includes patio homes, town homes, condos and loft properties.

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The Phoenix Real Estate Weekly 4/23/2010

Barb Savoy — Fri, 23 Apr 2010 14:40:27 +0000

Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CNRS, CHMS Director of Business & Career Development ~ Keller Williams Arizona Realty ~ www.PacellaGroup.com

The Market Optimism May be Contagious!

As reported by Peter Corbett in the Arizona Republic on April 15th, according to a University of Arizona forecast, the Valley’s new-home market is on its way to recovery.

The UofA Economic & Business Research Center report predicts that new-home permits in metro phoenix will jump 54% over last year and that permits will more than double next year.

Also on the plus side is affordable housing. Data shows that six out of ten homes sold in the fourth quarter of 2009 were affordable for families earning the Valley’s median income.

Valley-wide, residential re-sale appreciation is hovering at 9.4%, up from -41.7% at this time last year.

Valley-wide active inventory:

17% are foreclosures

43% are short sales

40% are equity sellers

Valley-wide monthly sold inventory:

51% are foreclosures

17% are short sales

31% are equity sellers

Scottsdale active inventory:

7% are foreclosures

24% are short sales

69% are equity sellers

Scottsdale monthly sold inventory:

24% are foreclosures

16% are short sales

60% are equity sellers

Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:

There are 26,973 single family detached homes actively on the market in MLS. That is a decrease of 374 listings for the week.
There are 33,940 active listings in MLS, which includes patio homes, town homes, condos and loft properties.

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The Phoenix Real Estate Weekly 4/16/2010

Barb Savoy — Sat, 17 Apr 2010 01:20:45 +0000

Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CNRS, CHMS Director Business & Career Development ~ Keller Williams Arizona Realty
www.PacellaGroup.com

The Phoenix Metro Area market continues to show signs of strengthening and reason for optimism.

The average rate, Valley wide, at which the market is absorbing active inventory is 26.9%. That number is considerably higher in the price ranges under $200,000.

There is currently a 4.9 month supply of inventory and appreciation is at 9.6% this week.

Reviewing year over year data:

* Sales are up 30% from the same time period last year.

* The average price per square foot is up 10% over the same time period last year.

* Days on Market is down 20% from the same time period last year.

* Days of available inventory is down 45% from the same time period last year.

Are you observing a trend? The sales volume and price are going up as the days on market and inventory are going down.

Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:

* There are 26,973 single family detached homes actively on the market in MLS. That is an increase of 115 listings for the week.

* There are 34,386 active listings in MLS, which includes patio homes, town homes, condos and loft properties (versus approximately 50,000 listings in the market two years ago).

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The Phoenix Real Estate Weekly 4/9/10

Barb Savoy — Fri, 09 Apr 2010 22:34:01 +0000

Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CNRS, CHMS Director Business & Career Development ~ Keller Williams Arizona Realty. www.PacellaGroup.com

The market trend still appears to be positive news for the Phoenix area. This information is based on data pulled directly from the Phoenix area MLS.

The Valley is holding steady with 93% of sales continuing to be under $400,000. The $200,000 and under market is extremely strong with 72% of the sales.

On average, Valley wide, properties are selling for 96% of list price.

Appreciation is up to 10% this week. We have been observing an upward trend in appreciation since the first of the year.

Valley wide, we have a 4.9 month supply of inventory which would be considered a balanced market, slightly in the seller’s favor.

Months of inventory by major municipality is:
Cave Creek 7.7 months
Chandler 4.8 months
Fountain Hills 5.8 months
Gilbert 4.2 months
Glendale 3.8 months
Paradise Valley 19.8 months
Peoria 4.8 months
Scottsdale 7.9 months
Surprise 3.9 months
Tempe 6.7 months

If we can answer your questions regarding a specific community or neighborhood, please do not hesitate to contact us.

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The Phoenix Real Estate Weekly 4/2/2010

Barb Savoy — Sat, 03 Apr 2010 00:08:50 +0000

Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CNRS, CHMS ~ Director Business & Career Development for Keller Williams Arizona Realty ~ www.PacellaGroup.com.

Avoiding anything unforeseen, the current market conditions appear to be improving.

You may have noticed that I have been watching the appreciation forecast weekly. It’s hard to believe that last year at this time it was -43.5%. In recent weeks, we have observed week over week improvement, and appreciation is +10.5% this week.

Two years ago, the Valley wide absorption rate was 5%. There is still a direct relationship between areas of largest distress and absorption, however, all areas of the market are seeing improvement in absorption. The luxury markets are still proving to be the slowest to show improvement:
Phoenix Metro 26.3%
Luxury (over $1mil) 5.3%
Cave Creek 18.0%
Chandler 24.9%
Fountain Hills 16.7%
Gilbert 29.0%
Glendale 31.4%
Mesa 28.4%
Paradise Valley 8.9%
Peoria 25.7%
Scottsdale 15.8%
Tempe 19.5%
Across all markets, absorption was 30-40% in the price ranges under $200,000.

Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:
* There are 26,858 single family detached homes actively on the market in MLS. That is a decrease of 365 listings for the week.

* There are 34,396 active listings in MLS, which includes patio homes, town homes, condos and loft properties (versus approximately 50,000 listings in the market two years ago).

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The Phoenix Real Estate Weekly 3/26/10

Barb Savoy — Fri, 26 Mar 2010 19:44:19 +0000

Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CNRS,CHMS ~ Director Business & Career Development Keller Williams Arizona Realty ~ www.PacellaGroup.com

The data is still showing optimism for the Phoenix Metro market.
* The average days on market for the metro area are down 23% from 2009, and 27% from 2008.
* Sales are up 32% over 2009 and 48% over 2008.
* The average price per square foot was $85.48 in 2008 and is $92.07 today.
* We have been watching the appreciation rate week over week. This week, appreciation is 7.7%, up again this week.
* The absorption rate (the number of listing pending versus active inventory) is 25.3%. That may not seem encouraging unless you consider that in early 2008 it was hovering at 5%.

Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:
* There are 27,223 single family detached properties actively listed in MLS. That is a slight decrease of 349 listings when compared to last week.

* There are a total of 34,810 properties including condos, patio homes, town homes, and lofts actively listed in MLS

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Sales Trends 2010 thru February

Tony Pomykala — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 00:46:17 +0000

Information provided via email from WWW.ACTIVEFUNDINGGROUP.COM


Jan-10	Total Closings	5575

Sales price	No. sales	% of total
0-100,000	2219	39.8027%
101-200,000	2154	38.6368%
201-400,000	998	17.9013%
401-750,000	253	4.5381%
751-1,001,000	47	0.8430%
1,001-2,000,000	56	1.0045%
2,001-5,000,000	21	0.3767%
5,001-10,000,000	1	0.0179%



Feb-10	Total Closings	6635

Sales price	No. sales	% of total
0-100,000	2482	37.4077%
101-200,000	2557	38.5381%
201-400,000	1157	17.4378%
401-750,000	300	4.5215%
751-1,001,000	62	0.9344%
1,001-2,000,000	48	0.7234%
2,001-5,000,000	20	0.3014%
5,001-10,000,000	2	0.0301%

Supply as of 3-4-2010

Total no. actives 35110

List price	No. Active listings	Supply (in months)
0-100,000	8034	3.42
101-200,000	12064	5.47
201-400,000	8321	7.64
401-750,000	3493	12.63
751-1,001,000	3253	59.69
1,001-2,000,000	2133	41.02
2,001-5,000,000	763	37.22
5,001-10,000,000	82	27.67
Over 10,000,000	25

List price	Av. Days on market
0-100,000	85
101-200,000	107
201-400,000	135
401-750,000	188
751-1,001,000	234
1,001-2,000,000	258
2,001-5,000,000	361
5,001-10,000,000	369
Over 10,000,000	377

Summary

Over 78% of sales occur in the $200k and under category

Over 90% of sales occur in the $400k and under category

In summary, the numbers don’t lie and market trending is abundantly clear. Two core elements drove the market into the sewer beginning in the 2nd quarter of 2006, which were rapid price deflation of residential assets coupled with a simultaneous dramatic lack of available take out financing.

There is still an oversupply of active properties for sale (we believe the oversupply is approximately 40%) but that needs to be carefully analyzed in specific pricing segments as opposed to a “bulk number”. The majority of oversupply exists in properties that retail for a price that exceeds the FHA upper end lending limit. We are seeing predictable and relatively short resale marketing timeframes for properties that retail for $250K and under.

Price deflation has largely occurred at this point and we are seeing modest price inflation in the $250K (retail) and under category and properties that retail for any price that is underneath the FHA upper end lending limit.

Market speed and velocity for properties that retail for a price that exceeds the FHA upper end lending limit is lethargic and will continue to be that way until there is a more competitive take out market for loan amounts over the FHA lending limit as there are only so many 800 FICO score buyers with 30% (or more) in cash for a down payment.

Prices being paid at Trustee sales recently are downright stupid if your business model is based upon an near term exit strategy, but the Bidders/Buyers attending the sale typically have little to no risk in the purchase, or the result reinforcing the largely accepted thought that it’s easy to spend someone else’s money. We believe the successful investor will “shoot with an arrow, not a shotgun” in this very competitive environment.

We are seeing some good values in the purchase of bank recovered assets from local or regional lenders, and short sale purchases.

There are still some “home runs” in the market – we see them daily but they are few in number and we see a lot more “singles and doubles”. Care and caution are the order of the day as we see it.

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