Buying Arizona Real Estate » Foreclosures

The Phoenix Real Estate Weekly 4/30/2010

Barb Savoy — Fri, 30 Apr 2010 20:36:43 +0000

Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CNRS, CHMS
Director Business & Career Development
Keller Williams Arizona Realty
www.PacellaGroup.com
(480) 767-3009

I hate to sound like a broken record (if you are under the age of 35, records were vynil discs that were used to store music prior to CDs, i-pods or MP3 players, and they sometimes became broken or scratched and repeated the same lyric over and over), but distress is playing a major factor in the inventory and movement of our market. Areas that have already experienced a high level of distress and are now moving through their inventory are beginning to see appreciation, while those who have not experienced a high level of distress are not. To illustrate, please note the percentage of distress and resulting appreciation in the following major cities:

percentage distress – annual appreciation
Chandler 67% -0.5%
Gilbert 64% -4.9%
Glendale 63% 8.4%
Mesa 75% 5.3%
Phoenix 67% 20%
Scottsdale 24% -3.1%
Surprise 74% 8.3%
Tempe 41% -6.6%

Valley wide, the price ranges under $350,000 are experiencing a seller’s market and have less than 5 months of inventory. The price ranges under $200,000 have less than 3 months of inventory.

Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market.
There are 26,169 single family detached homes actively on the market in MLS. That is a decrease of 804 listings for the week.
There are 33,415 active listings in MLS, which includes patio homes, town homes, condos and loft properties.

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The Phoenix Real Estate Weekly 3/05/2010

Barb Savoy — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 18:35:00 +0000

Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CNRS, CHMS
Director Business & Career Development
Keller Williams Arizona Realty
www.PacellaGroup.com

For the past year, we have seen consistently month over month that 93-94% of all properties selling in our market are listed under $400,000. That is still holding true.

As we know, the number of foreclosures listed has decreased, but the number of short sales have increased market share. The number of equity sellers has remained relatively unchanged over the past year.

The absorption rate (the number of listings pending sale versus the total active inventory) by city is:
Over all Valley wide 24.2%.
Chandler 21.8%
Fountain Hills 14.8%
Gilbert 27.4%
Glendale 28.7%
Peoria 24%
Scottsdale 14.8%
Surprise 27.2%
Tempe 20.4%

Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:

* There are 27,497 single family detached homes actively on the market in MLS.

* There are 35,126 active listings in inventory, which includes patio homes, town homes, condos, and lofts.

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Loss Mitigation Programs

Tony Pomykala — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 16:35:59 +0000

An interesting email I received from Stan Van Dyk of Cash Funding Options:

Hi All:
Today, I’m going to show you how the government’s
moratoriums and loss mitigation programs have affected
foreclosures and shadow inventory.

Shadow inventory is made up of all the properties that are
in foreclosure or headed toward foreclosure that haven’t
hit the market yet. There are 7 million homes in this shadow
inventory category. What the government isn’t telling you
is that their moratoriums and loss mitigation programs
created a huge surge of foreclosures that are about to pop.

Their effort to decrease foreclosures has backfired.

According to the National Association of Realtors, there
were 3.6 Million unsold homes in September. You think there
are a lot of homes on the market now? There are 7 Million
more coming that the government has created in this shadow
foreclosure inventory. That’s 2 times the amount of homes
that are currently on the market now!

The government’s Making Home Affordable (MHA) modification
program and FHA’s Hope for Homeowners refinance program DO
NOT WORK for borrowers that are too wealthy or owe too much
on their homes. The number of foreclosures for high end and
luxury homes in increasing and there are a ton of luxury
homes in this shadow inventory.

So what does all of this mean to you as a real estate
investor?

Opportunity, a lot of opportunity to help high-end
homeowners by offering them a short sale while making a
killing in the process.

So when can we expect to see the surge in foreclosures from
this shadow inventory?

We are in the first phase of shadow inventory right now and
it will continue into 2010. The second wave will start in
2010 and will continue into 2011 because the national
foreclosure moratoriums ended in March and the government
intensified its HOPE NOW Alliance program as well as its
Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP). These programs
were released in the first week of March but the problem
was that the servicers and lenders did not receive training
until the middle of June. Then, the programs had to be
updated because they weren’t effective and they became more
complicated to implement effectively.

This created a huge amount of people that have not paid
their mortgage and their houses have not been taken back by
the lenders yet. Basically the government only delayed the
inevitable foreclosure process but they made it worse
because all of the homes will be entering foreclosure at
the same time and with more debt owed on the mortgages.

This is the ultimate short sale environment. These homes
are ripe for the picking. Many of these homeowners have thrown
their hands up and have vacated the houses. These vacant
houses are gold for you as a real estate investor.

The third phase of shadow inventory will be borrowers that
have exhausted their options on long term government
sponsored payment plans, forbearances, and failed
modifications. These will show up in 2011 and continue into
2012 as their foreclosure timelines were delayed or reset
by the latest HAMP efforts.

As you can see, the biggest mass of foreclosures hasn’t
even hit us yet!

Call us to see how you can help and profit from the the credit and housing crisis.

Thank you,

Stan Van Dyk – Managing Partner
Cash Funding Options
4625 S Lakeshore Dr Tempe, AZ 85282
888-341-3802 Toll Free 602-314-1025 Office 480-516-4364 Cell
480-240-1316 e-Fax
Stan@CashFundingOptions.com http://www.cashfundingoptions.com/

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FHA waives the 90 day flip rule

Tony Pomykala — Mon, 18 Jan 2010 17:09:56 +0000

I received a nice email from Michael Neill of American Alliance Mortgage Company with the following fantastic news:

BREAKING NEWS!!!!!FHA WAIVES 90 DAY FLIP RULE

HUD TAKES ACTION TO SPEED RESALE OF FORECLOSED PROPERTIES TO NEW OWNERS

Measure to help bring stability to home values and accelerate sale of vacant properties

In an effort to stabilize home values and improve conditions in communities where foreclosure activity is high, HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan today announced a temporary policy that will expand access to FHA mortgage insurance and allow for the quick resale of foreclosed properties. The announcement is part of the Obama administration commitment to addressing foreclosure. Just yesterday, Secretary Donovan announced $2 billion in Neighborhood Stabilization Program grants to local communities and nonprofit housing developers to combat the effects of vacant and abandoned homes…

…The waiver will take effect on February 1, 2010 and is effective for one year, unless otherwise extended or withdrawn by the FHA Commissioner. To protect FHA borrowers against predatory practices of “flipping” where properties are quickly resold at inflated prices to unsuspecting borrowers, this waiver is limited to those sales meeting the following general conditions:

· All transactions must be arms-length, with no identity of interest between the buyer and seller or other parties participating in the sales transaction.

· In cases in which the sales price of the property is 20 percent or more above the seller’s acquisition cost, the waiver will only apply if the lender meets specific conditions.

· The waiver is limited to forward mortgages, and does not apply to the Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) for purchase program.

Specific conditions and other details of this new temporary policy are in the text of the waiver, available on HUD’s website at: http://www.hud.gov/offices/hsg/sfh/waivpropflip2010.pdf

Mike Neill
480-505-2202 ext 208
mike@aamcbank.com

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The Phoenix Real Estate Weekly 1/8/2010

Barb Savoy — Fri, 08 Jan 2010 23:06:36 +0000

Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CHMS, CNRS
Director of Business & Career Development
Keller Williams Arizona Realty
www.PacellaGroup.com

The market is starting out on some very positive notes for the New Year!

Active listing inventory is down 26% over the same time period last year.

I never imagined I would be pleasantly surprised by depreciation, however; appreciation was at -38.6% at this time last year. Currently, appreciation is at -5.2%, or a 33.4% improvement!

As reported by the East Valley Tribune today, Arizona is still among the 10 fastest growing states with an influx of new residents. Additionally, new building permits have declined by approximately 37% over the last year which is providing some relief in the market saturation.

The data for new building permits for 2008 and 2009 by municipality is:

2008 2009
Scottsdale 211 113
Tempe 35 38
Mesa 587 553
Phoenix 2726 1418
Peoria 760 282
Chandler 366 548
Total 4685 2952

Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:
• There are 26,608 single family detached listings currently active in MLS today. That is decrease of 29 listings compared to last week.
• Total listings (including condos, patio homes, town homes and lofts) currently active in MLS 34,030.

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The Phoenix Real Estate Weekly 12/18/09

Barb Savoy — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 14:37:45 +0000

Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CNRS, CHMS
Keller Williams Arizona Realty
www.PacellaGroup.com

The Federal Reserve has concluded their final meeting of 2009. It appears that for the time being, the Federal Funds Rate will not be increasing. However, the mortgage backed security program currently in place that has kept rates artificially low will come to an end in March. During their meeting, the Reserve did indicate that they believe the unemployment rate and general economic activity are improving, leading to even more speculation for increasing rates in the Spring.

For the second week, there has been an increase in the overall sales price per square foot for short sale and equitable seller homes. We had been observing that trend for quite a few weeks on foreclosure properties, but were delighted to see it penetrate all sales for the first time last week. Data shows the following sales price increases per square foot as follows:

* Foreclsoures 1.1%

* Short Sales 0.6%

* Equitable Sellers 2.2%

Valley-wide, the absorption rate (the rate of pending versus active listings) is still hovering in the 30% range and the months of active inventory at our current rate of absorption is 5.3 months.

Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:

There are 26,410 active, single family detached listings in MLS which is an increase of just 9 listings over last week.
There are 34,021 total active listings in MLS, which includes all dwelling types (single family, condo, patio homes, town homes)

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The Phoenix Real Estate Weekly 12/4/09

Barb Savoy — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 18:37:23 +0000

Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CNRS, CHMS
Keller Williams Arizona Realty

To view properties for sale, or for additional information, please visit us at www.PacellaGroup.com

In the areas of the Valley where inventory is moving, it appears that we can be hopeful for some stabilization of pricing. During the same time period in 2008 valley-wide home prices were depreciating by 35%. For the current month, valley-wide home prices are depreciating by 13%, with Scottsdale lagging behind most other areas.

The data is not sorted by dwelling type or price range, however the MLS data shows the following depreciation by city for the current month:
Chandler 10%
Fountain Hills 7%
Gilbert 9%
Glendale 15%
Peoria 15%
Paradise Valley 14%
Scottsdale 24%

Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:
• There are 26,237 active, single family detached listings currently in MLS. That is an increase of just 136 listings over the previous week.
• There are a total of 33,756 active listings including all dwelling types (single family detached, condo, patio home, town home, loft, etc).
• There are 10,895 pending listings (that does not include accepted offers that have a contingency, which accounts for another 6,224).

We look forward to answering your questions and assisting with your real estate needs!

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The Phoenix Real Estate Weekly 11/27/09

Barb Savoy — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 17:42:49 +0000

Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CNRS, CHMS
Keller Williams Arizona Realty

To view homes for sale, or for additional information visit us at www.PacellaGroup.com

If we continue on our current trend, it could be very good news for the Phoenix market.

According to the Cromford Report, which analyzes Phoenix real estate data, sales volumes are 63% higher than the same time last year, and active listings are reaching their seasonal peak which is 29% below 2008 levels. Additionally, foreclosure activity has declined in November and the totals for the month will probably be around 4,000 trustee sales (down 16% from October) and 7,000 notices (down 11% from October).
Overall, the majority of the Valley is in a seller’s market with under 4 months supply of inventory. The exceptions of course being Scottsdale (8.8 months), Fountain Hills (9.3 months), and Paradise Valley (17.6 months).

Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:

* There are 26,101 active, single family detached, listings currently in MLS. That is a decrease of 49 listings versus last week.

* There are 33,648 total listings (including condos, patio homes, and town homes) on the market this week.

The trend toward lender approval of short sales seems to be continuing, which is impacting the total of pending sales at 11,511.

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The Phoenix Real Estate Weekly 11/20/09

Barb Savoy — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 22:03:22 +0000

Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CNRS, CHMS
Keller Williams Arizona Realty

To view property for sale, or for additional information visit www.PacellaGroup.com

Inventory is still varying dramatically in different areas of the Valley. It is very much a seller’s market in the West and East Valley (between 3 to 4 months of supply in those areas), and very much a buyer’s market elsewhere, although we are finally seeing that Scottsdale and Fountain Hills are having some melting of inventory (between 9-10 months of supply, currently).

According to the Cromford Report, “both trustee sales and new notices of foreclosure are down sharply in the first half of November and we can be confident that the totals for the full month of November will be far below the peak levels set in July and March respectively.”

Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:

• There are 26,150 single family detached listings currently active in MLS.
• There are a total of 33,682 active listings, including all dwelling types.
• Foreclosures account for approximately 14% of the active inventory, and approximately 44% of the closings for the past month.
• Shorts sales account for approximately 38% of the active inventory, and approximately 20% of the closings for the past month.
• Traditional sales account for approximately 48% of the active inventory and approximately 36% of the closing for the past month.

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The Phoenix Real Estate Weekly 11/06/09

Barb Savoy — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 16:41:42 +0000

Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CNRS, CHMS
Keller Williams Arizona Realty

For additional information, or to view properties for sale, please visit our web site at www.PacellaGroup.com

We continue to find ourselves in a rather unusual market. We are seeing the seasonally anticipated rise in inventory, but we are also seeing extremely strong sales and pending sale inventory, as well.

According to the Cromford Report, demand is still rising faster than supply, and fewer Notices of Trustee sale were filed in October than the previous month.

A more recent occurrence is that we are starting to see more activity in the $400,000 – $600,000 price range, which had previously been very flat. This could be encouraging, particularly if the extension of the tax credit is passed to include the measure that would apply to current homeowners, as well as first time buyers.

Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:

There are 25,369 single family detached listings currently active in MLS, which is an increase of just 352 listings over last week.

There are 32,801 total listings actively in inventory, including patio homes, town homes, and condos.

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