Buying Arizona Real Estate » Stats

The Phoenix Real Estate Weekly 5/28/10

Barb Savoy — Fri, 28 May 2010 19:02:16 +0000

Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella ABR, CNRS, CHMS ~ Director of Business & Career Development, Keller Williams Arizona Realty www.PacellaGroup.com

There are many variables that can effect what seems to be our continuing ascension from what appeared to be the bottom, such as, “strategic default” by Alt-A borrowers; the expiration of the home buyer tax credits; and any other economic news that could cause buyers to have lack of confidence; however, setting the crystal ball aside and evaluating data for today, it would appear that with the exception of the luxury market, all other areas of the Valley are seeing improvement over this same time period last year.

Days of available inventory and days on market have decreased 20% over the past year, and although appreciation has been bouncing around over the past few weeks (as high as almost 10% and as low as 5%) this week Valley wide appreciation is at 7.4%.

Please view the two columns below to see the year over year appreciation by major city:

2009 2010

Cave Creek -22.6% -3.7%

Chandler -23.1% -0.8%

Fountain Hills -24.8% -5.9%

Gilbert -19.9% -4.1%

Glendale -44.8% 12.2%

Paradise Valley -13.2% -21%

Peoria -26.1% -2%

Phoenix -51.8% 23.1%

Scottsdale -21.9% -11.6%

Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:

There are 26,374 single family detached homes actively on the market in MLS. That is an increase of 152 listings for the week and the second week in a row that we’ve observed an inventory increase during a time period when we would normally see decrease.
There are 33,489 active listings in MLS, which includes patio homes, town homes, condos and loft properties.

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The Phoenix Real Estate Weekly 4/2/2010

Barb Savoy — Sat, 03 Apr 2010 00:08:50 +0000

Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CNRS, CHMS ~ Director Business & Career Development for Keller Williams Arizona Realty ~ www.PacellaGroup.com.

Avoiding anything unforeseen, the current market conditions appear to be improving.

You may have noticed that I have been watching the appreciation forecast weekly. It’s hard to believe that last year at this time it was -43.5%. In recent weeks, we have observed week over week improvement, and appreciation is +10.5% this week.

Two years ago, the Valley wide absorption rate was 5%. There is still a direct relationship between areas of largest distress and absorption, however, all areas of the market are seeing improvement in absorption. The luxury markets are still proving to be the slowest to show improvement:
Phoenix Metro 26.3%
Luxury (over $1mil) 5.3%
Cave Creek 18.0%
Chandler 24.9%
Fountain Hills 16.7%
Gilbert 29.0%
Glendale 31.4%
Mesa 28.4%
Paradise Valley 8.9%
Peoria 25.7%
Scottsdale 15.8%
Tempe 19.5%
Across all markets, absorption was 30-40% in the price ranges under $200,000.

Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:
* There are 26,858 single family detached homes actively on the market in MLS. That is a decrease of 365 listings for the week.

* There are 34,396 active listings in MLS, which includes patio homes, town homes, condos and loft properties (versus approximately 50,000 listings in the market two years ago).

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Sales Trends 2010 thru February

Tony Pomykala — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 00:46:17 +0000

Information provided via email from WWW.ACTIVEFUNDINGGROUP.COM


Jan-10	Total Closings	5575

Sales price	No. sales	% of total
0-100,000	2219	39.8027%
101-200,000	2154	38.6368%
201-400,000	998	17.9013%
401-750,000	253	4.5381%
751-1,001,000	47	0.8430%
1,001-2,000,000	56	1.0045%
2,001-5,000,000	21	0.3767%
5,001-10,000,000	1	0.0179%



Feb-10	Total Closings	6635

Sales price	No. sales	% of total
0-100,000	2482	37.4077%
101-200,000	2557	38.5381%
201-400,000	1157	17.4378%
401-750,000	300	4.5215%
751-1,001,000	62	0.9344%
1,001-2,000,000	48	0.7234%
2,001-5,000,000	20	0.3014%
5,001-10,000,000	2	0.0301%

Supply as of 3-4-2010

Total no. actives 35110

List price	No. Active listings	Supply (in months)
0-100,000	8034	3.42
101-200,000	12064	5.47
201-400,000	8321	7.64
401-750,000	3493	12.63
751-1,001,000	3253	59.69
1,001-2,000,000	2133	41.02
2,001-5,000,000	763	37.22
5,001-10,000,000	82	27.67
Over 10,000,000	25

List price	Av. Days on market
0-100,000	85
101-200,000	107
201-400,000	135
401-750,000	188
751-1,001,000	234
1,001-2,000,000	258
2,001-5,000,000	361
5,001-10,000,000	369
Over 10,000,000	377

Summary

Over 78% of sales occur in the $200k and under category

Over 90% of sales occur in the $400k and under category

In summary, the numbers don’t lie and market trending is abundantly clear. Two core elements drove the market into the sewer beginning in the 2nd quarter of 2006, which were rapid price deflation of residential assets coupled with a simultaneous dramatic lack of available take out financing.

There is still an oversupply of active properties for sale (we believe the oversupply is approximately 40%) but that needs to be carefully analyzed in specific pricing segments as opposed to a “bulk number”. The majority of oversupply exists in properties that retail for a price that exceeds the FHA upper end lending limit. We are seeing predictable and relatively short resale marketing timeframes for properties that retail for $250K and under.

Price deflation has largely occurred at this point and we are seeing modest price inflation in the $250K (retail) and under category and properties that retail for any price that is underneath the FHA upper end lending limit.

Market speed and velocity for properties that retail for a price that exceeds the FHA upper end lending limit is lethargic and will continue to be that way until there is a more competitive take out market for loan amounts over the FHA lending limit as there are only so many 800 FICO score buyers with 30% (or more) in cash for a down payment.

Prices being paid at Trustee sales recently are downright stupid if your business model is based upon an near term exit strategy, but the Bidders/Buyers attending the sale typically have little to no risk in the purchase, or the result reinforcing the largely accepted thought that it’s easy to spend someone else’s money. We believe the successful investor will “shoot with an arrow, not a shotgun” in this very competitive environment.

We are seeing some good values in the purchase of bank recovered assets from local or regional lenders, and short sale purchases.

There are still some “home runs” in the market – we see them daily but they are few in number and we see a lot more “singles and doubles”. Care and caution are the order of the day as we see it.

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The Phoenix Real Estate Weekly 1/29/2010

Barb Savoy — Sat, 30 Jan 2010 01:50:58 +0000

Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CNRS, CHMS
Director of Business & Career Development
Keller Williams Arizona Realty

Here we go! The moment we’ve all been anticipating! Would we see the traditional rise in pending sales anticipated to begin the third week in January annually, or would the “shadow inventory” of foreclosures flood the market?

The results are in. According to the Cromford Report:

* Pending listings are up 5% over the past week.

* It is also anticipated that January will see the fewest notices of trustee sale in approximately 20 months.

During the same week in 2009, we had approximately 20 months of active inventory, versus approximately 7 months in 2010. Additionally, the average sale price per square foot (Valley wide and all dweling types), increased by $2.00 per square foot in the past month.

All of these are certainly positive indicators and reasons to be optimistic.

Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:
* There are 27,448 single family detached listings currently active in MLS. That is an increase of 128 listings over last week.

* There are 35,015 total listings, including all dwelling types (including condos, patio homes, town homes and lofts).

To view homes for sale, or for additional information visit www.PacellaGroup.com or phone (602) 908-0373.

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The Phoenix Real Estate Weekly 11/20/09

Barb Savoy — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 22:03:22 +0000

Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CNRS, CHMS
Keller Williams Arizona Realty

To view property for sale, or for additional information visit www.PacellaGroup.com

Inventory is still varying dramatically in different areas of the Valley. It is very much a seller’s market in the West and East Valley (between 3 to 4 months of supply in those areas), and very much a buyer’s market elsewhere, although we are finally seeing that Scottsdale and Fountain Hills are having some melting of inventory (between 9-10 months of supply, currently).

According to the Cromford Report, “both trustee sales and new notices of foreclosure are down sharply in the first half of November and we can be confident that the totals for the full month of November will be far below the peak levels set in July and March respectively.”

Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:

• There are 26,150 single family detached listings currently active in MLS.
• There are a total of 33,682 active listings, including all dwelling types.
• Foreclosures account for approximately 14% of the active inventory, and approximately 44% of the closings for the past month.
• Shorts sales account for approximately 38% of the active inventory, and approximately 20% of the closings for the past month.
• Traditional sales account for approximately 48% of the active inventory and approximately 36% of the closing for the past month.

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The Phoenix Real Estate Weekly 9/25/09

Barb Savoy — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 22:11:16 +0000

Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CNRS, CHMS
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage

To view property for sale, or for additional information, please visit our web site at www.PacellaGroup.com

According to the Cromford Report, the listing success rate Valley wide (the number of listings that sell rather than expiring or canceling) is 63.8% this year, which is encouraging when you consider that last year at this time, it was 41.5% and two years ago it was 29.3%

The vast majority of the sales are currently taking place in the West Valley where Glendale has a 2.7 months supply Peoria has a 3.6 months supply of inventory; versus Scottsdale at 9.2 months, and Fountain Hills at 14.4 months.

Breaking down the data, there is of course a direct relationship between the number of distressed properties in the areas with the lowest supply of inventory, versus the areas with higher supplies of inventory. For example, distressed properties account for approximately 55% of listings available in the 85308 zip code of the Glendale area, versus approximately 16% in the 85258 zip code of Scottsdale.

The market demand remains in the price range under $400,000.

CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE PHOENIX MARKET:

* There are 24,044 single family detached listings actively on the market today. That is an increase of 27 listings for the week.

* Total listings, including condos, patio homes, and town homes active in MLS today is 31,266.

Absorption rates and months of supply are still varying widely from one area of the Valley to another. Please, let me know if you have questions regarding a specific area.

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The Phoenix Real Estate Weekly 9/18/09

Barb Savoy — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 15:25:52 +0000

Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CNRS, CHMS
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage

For additional information or to view properties for sale, visit our web site at www.PacellaGroup.com

The Phoenix market is seeing the traditional sales volume slowing that is anticipated annually at this time, however, sales volume is still up 35% over the mid-August to mid-September time frame a year ago, and pending sales are up 28%.

According to “The Cromford Report,” short sale listings are up 6% over just one month ago, but foreclosure listings are down 9%. Another interesting observation of “The Cromford Report,” the average single family detached foreclosure is 10% larger than it was six months ago (2122 square feet, versus 1928 square feet) suggesting that foreclosures may be moving up the market.

The market demand remains in the price range under $400,000.

CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE PHOENIX MARKET:

* There are 24,017 single family detached listings actively on the market today. That is an increase of 41 listings for the week.

* Total listings, including condos, patio homes, and town homes active in MLS today is 31,239.

An interesting side note: there are 12,893 properties pending sale and 6,526 under contract with a contingency.

Absorption rates and months of supply are still varying widely from one area of the Valley to another. Please, contact us for information regarding a specific area.

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The Phoenix Real Estate Weekly 8/28/09

Barb Savoy — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 01:17:00 +0000

by Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CNRS, CHMS
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage

Visit our web site at www.PacellaGroup.com to view property listings, or for additional information.

For those who like good news/bad news scenarios, you will enjoy this week’s report….

The good news is that we have seen a steady decline in the percentage of inventory of foreclosure property over the past several weeks (currently foreclosures make up just 14% of the active inventory). The other good news is that although we have been hearing for some time that another wave of foreclosures is imminent, according to Net Value Central, of the properties currently owned by the bank that are not yet on the market, the vast majority is comprised of vacant land that went back to the banks after builder failures, rather than residential resale homes.

The bad news is that foreclosures overall still seem to be the only segment of the market seeing a price per square foot increase with short sales and seller owned properties still seeing declines.

CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE PHOENIX MARKET:

There are 24,061 single family detached listings actively on the market today. That is a decrease of 9 listings for the week.

Total listings, including condos, patio homes, and town homes active in MLS today are 31,339.

For absorption rate information and months of available supply for a specific area in the Valley, please contact us at www.PacellaGroup.com

Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CNRS, CHMS
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage
(602) 908-7177
Pacella & Savoy, PLLC
International Sterling Society & Customer Service Award Winner

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The Phoenix Real Estate Weekly 8/21/09

Barb Savoy — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 18:16:53 +0000

Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella ABR, CNRS, CHMS
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage

Visit our web site at www.PacellaGroup.com to view property listings, or for additional information.

The real estate roller coaster appears to have fewer terrifying drops recently.

According to the Cromford Report, seller owned transactions have seen a price decline per square foot in the past several weeks, although they only comprise 20% of the sales. Once again, this week the price per square foot for foreclosed properties seems to be increasing, however, this week the price per square foot for short sales seems to be declining slightly, after remaining relatively flat for the past few weeks.

It appears that the rate of notice of trustee sales has been significantly lower for the month of August than it had been in June and July, which will hopefully equate to further stabilization in the market. We are heading into what is traditionally the slowest time of year for real estate sales in the Phoenix Metro area, so we will have to wait and see…

CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE PHOENIX MARKET:

There are 24,070 single family detached listings actively on the market today. That is a decrease of 139 listings for the week.

Total listings, including condos, patio homes, and town homes active in MLS today are 31,312.

Areas in the Valley that were hardest hit by foreclosures are still seeing a tremendous amount of activity with many properties receiving multiple offers and selling above list price.

For absorption rate information and months of available supply for a specific area in the Valley, please contact us at www.PacellaGroup.com

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The Phoenix Real Estate Weekly 8/14/09

Barb Savoy — Sat, 15 Aug 2009 01:52:43 +0000

Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CNRS, CHMS
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage

Visit our web site at www.PacellaGroup.com to view listings or for more information.

The Phoenix, Arizona market certainly isn’t dull these days. Reviewing year over year data for the same time period last year, we can see that pending sales are up 58% and closed transactions, or sold properties have increased 63%.

The Cromford Report has pointed out some interesting trends in the market over the past several weeks. Foreclosed properties, being sold by the lender, are decreasing their percentage of market share in transactions closing each month, but their average price per square foot is beginning to increase. Short sales are grabbing an increased market share, but their average price per square foot is remaining flat. Seller owned properties are seeing sales remain flat, and the average price per square foot is decreasing.

CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE PHOENIX MARKET:

There are 24,209 single family detached listings actively on the market today. That is an increase of 34 listings for the week.

Total listings, including condos, patio homes and town homes active in MLS today are 31,473.

We are still seeing the driving force of the market listed under $400,000 and are still seeing investors coming into the market place.

The absorption rate and months of supply are still varying vastly throughout the Valley. Please contact us at www.PacellaGroup.com for information regarding specific locations.

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